Predict the outcome of women's tennis match play at events throughout the 2026 WTA season.
Each match that begins will resolve YES if the FIRST player listed advances to the next round, either by win or walkover. The match will resolve NO if the SECOND player listed advances (again either by win or walkover). A match will resolve N/A if it does not take place (that is, if a player withdraws before the match begins).
Example:
π¦πΊ A. TomljanoviΔ vs πΊπΈ C. Gauff (3) [US Open β Round 1]
Will resolve YES if TomljanoviΔ advances by win or walkover. Will resolve NO if Gauff, seeded third, advances instead.
Won't always have these descriptions, but if they occur, here's what they mean:
(1) β Seeded first (and so on)
(Q) β Qualifier (made main draw by winning qualifying matches)
(LL) β Lucky Loser (lost in qualifying, but made the main draw by another player's withdrawal)
(WC) β Wild Card (gained main draw entry at the discretion of the tournament director)
Will try to leave some limit orders up prior to the match start time for the day, but then will typically close betting until the matches are completed.
1,000People are also trading
@JasonMurphy sure. if I leave the market open during play, it just leaks all the liquidity to whichever trader (or bot) happens to see the results first. if there were several live traders going back and forth, that would be one thing, but the tennis market on manifold just isn't very deep. I enjoy running the market, but I don't enjoy running it to the tune of losing several thousand mana per day.
other sports markets deal with this in various ways. I think it's possible to withdraw a bunch of the liquidity prior to match play. some markets just NA any games/options/matches where their limit orders don't get hit. I don't really like either of those options, so especially for the early stages of a tournament, I try to just encourage trading on the limit orders. as there are fewer matches later on in the tournament, it's not as much mana to lose, and there tends to be more interest, so I usually leave it open longer once we hit round of 16 or so.
@polymathematic I'm trying to wrap my head around the nature of these betting markets. Are early betters disadvantaged by late betters who enter the market with way more information? I feel like not?
So the main reason for discouraging in-play betting is that the liquidity in the market has its origin with you, and you put a lot of it in?
Won't you get big bets that pump the market full of mana if people are betting late when the result is becoming clear? I've made some big late bets on these markets in the last couple of days ! (And also found a couple still open after the results were known and made a massive bet! ).
Anyway there may be reasons and dynamics I don't yet grasp here but I'd like to bet and the market has been shut for hours !
@JasonMurphy yes, i fund all the options at 100 mana per option. so, for example, between the men's and women's tournaments, indian wells has 128 round 1 and round 2 matches. i fund 100 mana per match, plus whatever it takes to get the options within the vicinity of the correct odds, which conservatively is probably like another 50 mana on average (the heavier the favorite, the more mana it takes, but most matches are not 80%+ faves). so that's something like 20k mana. now, i do get a per trader bonus from manifold when people bet, but it's just 10 mana, and there just aren't that many traders. especially on these early rounds, the modal number of traders is probably 2 per match, with many more below that than above. i also get mana back in the form of returned liquidity once the match is resolved, but only as much liquidity as remains in the match. each trade is essentially a trade against the liquidity i've put in. if a trader trades (or a bot is set up to trade) only once the result is known, i'm just giving away ~100 mana per option.
later on in the tournament, this isn't as big a deal, because there are fewer matches to fund, and typically more traders. i'm also happy to subsidize a certain amount of trading, because i'm interested in trading on tennis. that's why i set up the market. but i don't have so much mana that i can just dump 20-40k 14 times per year, so i have to come up with some sort of ways to conserve the liquidity.
@polymathematic feels like a problem with manifolds setup that a person who adds a lot of value by establishing markets is then at risk of losing a lot of mana, unless they bet in those markets (and manage those markets so they retain an edge). I'm not blaming you but it doesn't feel like the platonic form of good market structure.
@traders more matches and limit orders up today. if you want to trade directly on the indian wells winner, you can do so here: https://manifold.markets/polymathematic/who-will-win-the-2026-bnp-paribas-o-lqngZ9uZcd
@traders Indian Wells matches begin today! Round 1 is up with some limit orders.
@traders the WTA season marches on. Doha (WTA 1000) is happening now. Round 2 matches are up. Happy predicting!
@traders itβs been an extremely chalky tournament so far, with all the major favorites still alive. But the round of 16 begins tonight. Limit orders up!