@traders My current take: this should not be the same as "does he win the primary"; that's a different question, that we have other markets for. "Run for" in my mind means election activity, including being on the primary ballot, or the presidential ballot, or filing FEC forms.

I propose that this resolve Yes if either:

• He appears on any primary or general election ballot for the office of the Presidency or party (presumably Democratic) nomination for it

• He files an FEC Form 2

Any objections or proposed other criteria?

@EvanDaniel what if he announces with a prime time speech but then drops out before having his organization put any names on any ballot? Let's say he establishes a 3rd party but does not immediately say he is running for president of his 3rd party?

Other than that scenario I would agree this is pretty clear.

@NostraDollas I think my proposal is fairly clear in that case: if he makes noise and does nothing, it doesn't count. I'm intentionally sacrificing a little bit of "well it seems like he's running" resolution for clarity on exactly what counts. There's a whole spectrum for how much talking about running it takes to count as actually running, but not many shades of gray on filing a Form 2 or being on a ballot.

Is running for Democratic nominee enough to be "running for president"? this is the key question and the @mods should either answer it or n/a the market since the user is two years inactive

Does it count as a NO if he doesn’t win the primary?

related:

https://manifold.markets/DanielRohrer/will-jb-pritzker-run-for-president?r=RGFuaWVsUm9ocmVy

this is closing next month?

@adk Wrong November, thanks!