Resolution criteria

The parties are targeting 2026 for final investment decision, and this market resolves YES if Alcoa announces a Final Investment Decision (FID) for the Wagerup gallium project by March 31, 2026. Resolution will be based on official announcements from Alcoa Corporation via press releases, SEC filings, or ASX announcements. The announcement must explicitly state that a Final Investment Decision has been made. The market resolves NO if no such announcement is made by the deadline.

Background

Alcoa announced in October 2025 that the United States and Australian governments will advance development of a gallium plant at the Company's Wagerup alumina refinery in Western Australia, following support from Japan Australia Gallium Associates Pty Ltd (JAGA), a joint venture between the Japanese Government and Sojitz Corporation, through a Joint Development Agreement announced in August 2025. The plant would be expected to produce 100 metric tons of gallium annually. The Australian government will provide A$200-million in concessional equity finance to the Wagerup development.

Considerations

The schedule implies a final investment decision very early in 2026, despite the immaturity of the technical work. Alcoa is currently studying the feasibility of using ion exchange technology to extract gallium from the process stream of the alumina refinery, and to meet the end of 2026 target it has 14 months to complete the feasibility study, conduct detailed design, appoint a construction contractor, build the plant and then commission it. Investors typically do not make a final investment decision until they know what conditions will be imposed by the environment minister, and if the aim to produce gallium before the end of 2026 is genuine, it cannot be achieved under current environmental approval processes.