This market resolves YES if Iran successfully conducts a direct attack on the mainland United States (the 50 states) resulting in at least 10 casualties before March, the 1st, 2027. Casualties include deaths and injuries. The attack must be carried out by Iranian state forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), or entities directly controlled by the Iranian government.
Update 2026-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Attacks by Iranian-supported groups (e.g., Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas) will count as YES if the group states the attack is meant as revenge for Iran.
Update 2026-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Attacks by Iranian-funded/directed groups (e.g., Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas) may count as YES if the attack was funded and directed by Iran. Attacks by those groups for other reasons (e.g., related to Gaza) would not count. The creator acknowledges this distinction may be difficult to apply and is open to suggestions.
1,000@MachiNi If it is one of the groups that Iran is supporting, like Hezbollah, the Houthis or Hamas and they state that the attack is meant as a revenge for Iran, I would count that as a YES, too.
@CommanderKeen i have thought about this some more, and it seems that a clear delineation could be difficult here. I feel that I shouldn't exclude attacks by those groups if they were funded and directed by Iran, on the other hand I would not want to count attacks that would have happened anyway or for other reasons like Gaza.
I am open to suggestions