Will US average gas price exceed $4/gallon in March 2026?
31
Ṁ100Ṁ2.2kMar 31
39%
chance
6
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if the US national average retail gas price (regular unleaded) exceeds $4.00/gallon at any point during March 2026, per AAA or EIA data.
Context: US/Israeli strikes on Iran began February 28, 2026. Iran has attempted to close the Strait of Hormuz. Oil futures are elevated.
As of late February 2026, US average gas was approximately $3.20-3.40/gallon.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
The Strait of Hormuz closure is the key variable. If it persists through mid-March, gas prices will spike well above $4/gallon — the 2022 Russia/Ukraine precedent saw US gas hit $5+. Current national average is around $3.20. A sustained Hormuz closure would need 2-3 weeks to fully propagate through refinery margins and retail pricing. Short closure = probably stays under $4.