All markets resolve by July 1st 2026, unless noted otherwise.
Update 2026-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the option "A non-Anthropic LLM is deployed and accessible to end users on classified Pentagon networks" to resolve YES:
The system must be approved for classified information (not just controlled unclassified information)
The system must actually be available to use for classified information
Update 2026-02-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For "The Pentagon continues to use Anthropic services without the requested changes": the market will resolve based on whether ALL requested changes (specifically mass surveillance and autonomous weapons clauses removed) are made to Anthropic's usage terms. Changes to the model/deployment itself are not required for resolution.
Update 2026-02-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the option "Anthropic is designated as a supply chain risk": This will resolve YES when it is reported that the legal paperwork for the supply chain risk designation is filed, regardless of whether Anthropic challenges it or gets it overturned later. A tweet or public statement alone is not sufficient for resolution.
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Anthropic claims that the designation as a supply chain risk has not been "formally adopted": https://www.anthropic.com/news/statement-comments-secretary-war
@Weepinbell Hmm this is interesting, in Hegseth's tweet he claims the direction is effective immediately, but it does seem ambiguous whether tweeting this legally enacts the designation. I think I should have worded this more clearly but for now @mods would you be able to unresolve "Anthropic is designated as a supply chain risk"?
To make things more clear for the future I would re-resolve this as soon as its reported that the legal paperwork for the supply chain risk is filed, regardless of whether Anthropic challenges it or gets it overturned later.
@KarlK I'll interpret this as "without ALL requested changes (mass surveillance and autonomous weapons clauses removed) to Anthropic's usage terms." I won't require specific changes to be made to the model/deployment since that would be harder to measure and hasn't been the focus of the discourse. Please let me know if you meant something different by this!
>"A non-Anthropic LLM is deployed and accessible to end users on classified Pentagon networks"
This is already the case: https://www.war.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/4355797/hegseth-introduces-department-to-new-ai-tool/
@ChurlishGambit I don't think so - the article says "This version is approved to handle controlled unclassified information." To resolve this yes I would need to see something which is both approved for and actually available to use for classified information.
@ChurlishGambit Yes. Are you saying you think a non-Anthropic LLM has been used for a secret operation? The article you linked is just talking about unclassified use cases for Gemini.
@2b3o4o No, just trying to get more clarification. I think you are expecting more rigor of process from the MIC than they actually have
@ChurlishGambit Ah ok, thanks for helping clarify the question :) For more context I've found Azure OpenAI is already cleared for classified use cases, so personally I think the Pentagon choosing to deploy that (and it being publicly reported) is by far the most likely way this resolves yes: https://devblogs.microsoft.com/azuregov/azure-openai-authorization/
@2b3o4o Ah! Great find. Love to see a market creator willing to actually find info for their market, too many people here can't be bothered. Gonna sink more into YES on that, then